With the NDP's loss in Manitoba last night the bad news for the party has ended for the time being. Their next major challenge will be a year from now when the B.C. general election kicks-off. An election they should win but, which at the moment the polls say is leaning toward the Liberals. Should they lose it would make for five consecutive defeats; 2001, 2005, 2009, 2013, 2017. The current record is seven from 1952 until Dave Barrett's victory in 1972.
For the B.C. NDP where they go from here is unclear. If the NDP is going to split anywhere over the LEAP manifesto it will be in British Columbia where labour and environmentalism meet on the front lines-the forests and traditional territories of First Nations people. Scenic beauty, ecology and environmental sustainability stability our economic well being derived from both natural resource extraction and tourism are significant industries in British Columbia particularly Vancouver Island where the NDP heartland is located.
John Horgan in B.C. hasn't shown much wherewithal in the House failing to generate significant headlines or remove the Liberals from their good news pedestal of a surplus budget and relatively scandal free governance. It's not for lack of trying, the Ministry of Children and Families continues to produce headlines of incompetence, poor planning and systemic failures of under-funding yet, the public most of whom have few interactions with the MCFD seem content to let conditions deteriorate so long as it doesn't affect their lives or taxes too much.
Horgan has two different approaches for the Party excluding the LEAP manifesto. Either play up his credentials as a responsible government-in-waiting; Make policy announcements but, nothing too radical with or without large infrastructure investment. Or Horgan could campaign on a platform of deficit and increased program spending to the MCFD among others or on large scale capital spending-infrastructure; more roads, a subway line to UBC, expanded bus service in the Capital Regional District and the return of the E&N Railway or at least converting the track from Langford- downtown into a commuter train. The problem with this strategy past history suggests the British Columbia New Democratic Party does not have a good record when it comes to infrastructure renewal particularly transportation projects where an underused Skytrain Line (Metro) and Fast ferries that couldn't handle the protective swells between vancouver Island and the Mainland are its legacy. In short contracts to Union supporters and cost-over-runs and underused infrastructure for taxpayers.
If they take the Government-in-waiting route and restrict themselves to a status quo campaign they run the risk of being deprived of ideas, of the party who fails to dream big, the party of "NO". It is hard to run a campaign of change for that is what the NDP must run, campaign to change the Government! When they propose little of it. It is possible when the Government is old and tired and a genuine need for fresh air exists but, the premier Christy Clark with her Energizer Bunny busyness doesn't look old or tired and what's more she's got a plan-it's called LNG- and whether it works or not the idea sounds great and as long as its hypothetical and not damaging the books or the economy-she can run on it or at least try. That leaves Horgan with few options but, to propose spending increases and infrastructure renewal that will inevitably lead the Liberals to attack the NDP's dismal record. Such a campaign does not preclude an NDP win and campaigns themselves are all important, generally speaking if the BC LIberals can run a campaign against tax-and-spend-New Democrats they will as it suits their narrative that only the B.C. Liberals can manage the economy. Most elections are pocketbook elections in some form or another so conceding this point allows the Liberals to play in the NDP end of the field. All still to play for of course but, from this far out juncture the B.C. Liberals look to be the favourites.
In Saskatchewan and Manitoba NDP leadership contests will likely take up much of the next year. In Saskatchewan the leader does not have a seat and although Selinger won his seat of St. Boniface his resignation effectively means the Manitoba NDP will not have a leader with a seat in the House either for the First Session of the New Legislature. Selinger has asked the Party president, former Assembly of First Nations national chief Ovide Mercredi, to appoint an interim replacement. For my money I Matt Wiebe seems like a good bet, the former constituency assistant for Gary Doer and Bill Blaikie represents a new generation but possesses critical experience to present a formidable opposition. Who will get the job full-time it is far too early to tell. Had Steve Ashton retained his seat on Tuesday I would have thought him to be the odds-on favourite. Jim Malloway is probably a good bet for the interim job and perhaps first time M.L.A. and former C.B.C. journalist Wab Kinew a strong possibility for permanent leader sometime next year had he not lost his seat. Indeed, most of the cabinet was defeated and so the party has little choice but to look to a younger generation and new blood. In Saskatchewan with Broten's defeat a seasoned hand will likely take over in the short term a number of long time incumbents managed to hang on and I expect one of them to accept the honour of Opposition leader in time Summer or whenever Brad Walls delivers a Speech from the Throne and budget.
More to the point where does the NDP in total go from here? They must answer an existential question: What type of political party do they wish to be? A Party that competes for Government; A Party of conscience and protest; A limited or regional Party that can influence power and help shape Government; Something besides? Jack Layton elevated the NDP into a Party capable of competing for Government, alas Mulcair could not maintain this office. A limited or regional party is the traditional NDP upon the Canadian political stage with strength particularly in the West and among the working class and left-wing idealists. The limited party role has perhaps given the most success for the NDP as they were kingmakers both during the minority governments of Lester Pearson and Paul Martin and Stephen Harper. Minority Parliaments give the NDP relevance, a meaningful role.
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