With an election today, April 4, 2016 in Saskatchewan in which the NDP is expected to be easily defeated we can all look forward to a tumultuous year ahead for Canada's social democrats. In fact 2016 could well turn into the NDP's annus horribilis. Mulcair faces a leadership review in a week, April 10th; the NDP are expected to lose Government in Manitoba, April 19th and the year will culminate with the BC NDP's fifth consecutive general election loss on May 9th 2017.
Cam Broten and the Saskatchewan NDP will be lucky to hold onto the nine seats they have in the Legislative Assembly we will know more this evening but, I suspect Broten's time at the helm of the NDP to be limited. Should the unlikely occur and he gains seats perhaps a case can be made to keep him around, will Broten want to stay in the face of the re-elected Wall juggernaut? He may.
As the resource super-cycle grinds to a halt and the effects of low oil prices begin to bite the Saskatchewan NDP may for the first time in over a decade hold a reasonable case to be elected Government in 2020 should a recession persist and the Saskatchewan Party be "made to wear it". Hanging on to a familiar (if not universally loved) leader possesses many benefits; the NDP will not have to re-introduce another leader, the fifth in nine years. This saves money on advertising and trips around the Province. Stability in itself has its own rewards; the Party can present a team-a group of experienced hands to run Saskatchewan. Changing a leader always brings with it a degree of instability keeping a leader may do the opposite.
Greg Sellinger and the Manitoba NDP are in much the same boat. Trailing badly in the polls during the middle of an election campaign and fighting hard to keep Official Opposition away from the newly resurgent Manitoba Liberals. Elections are notoriously close in Manitoba and the polls have marginally improved for the Manitoba NDP since the election was called. After 17 years of NDP Government however, people are hankering for change in that way which is best described as "time for a change". Sellinger will most likely resign as leader on April 19th and I predict an Ashton will be the next leader of the Manitoba NDP.
Between now and then we can all look forward to the NDP's convention in Edmonton from April 8-10, 2016. The highlight of the convention will be the leadership review vote on Sunday April tenth. The question is an indirect vote on Thomas Mulcair's leadership: Are you in favour of holding a leadership convention? Yes, means you want Mulcair to go. No, means you want Mulcair to stay. As a non-New Democrat it is impossible for me to say how the vote will go. What I hear however, leads me to believe that Mulcair will be lucky to get 60%. It is not so much about the poor electoral strategy of the NDP's 2015 campaign or the loss of 59 seats. It is about Mulcair's value added if you will and his performance post-election both of which are dismal. The latest poll from EKOS has the NDP at 11.7% nationally and only 10.8% in Ontario! Think about that? Worse still the NDP are fourth in Quebec behind the Liberals, BQ and Tories. In B.C. they trail the Greens by nearly five points 14.7%-9.9%! Never mind Saskatchewan and Alberta where they barely register federally. The NDP is in an existential crisis. Dippers being who they are will be the last to awake to this fact until sometime after the BC NDP"s fifth consecutive general election loss on May 9, 2017. Once they do they must ask themselves what they are here for if not to win Government?
For Mulcair he must address the issue quickly or surely lose his leadership. What is He there for? What is His plan? How will He keep Trudeau accountable? How will He regain support lost to the Liberals? What is His purpose as national NDP leader? What are His goals as NDP leader? Thus far I have not seen or heard any plan emanating from Mr. Mulcair or his office. No raison d'etre for his continued leadership and that is why I suspect Mulcair's leadership is closer to the end than the beginning and why if Mulcair wishes to avoid embarrassment he should resign today before humiliation becomes his final reward.
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