The delegates at the NDP national convention in Edmonton have done the Party a huge favour. By dumping Mulcair now they have averted a drawn out and painful civil war between Mulcair loyalists and rebels. It is always painful to dump a leader but quick and (mostly) painless is always better than drawn out and bitter. If you're a Mulcair fan you are rightfully sad and upset you may feel and, it is indeed probable, that his replacement will not be as skilled in Question Period, she may not be as seasoned on the campaign trail. As much as Mulcair supporters may be disappointed others would say his attributes are good on paper but, when he got on the campaign trail his performance in question Period didn't matter a whit, for all his seasoning on the campaign trail he lacked charisma and failed to pick-up the mood on the ground sufficiently to alter course during the campaign. He got knocked-off and never recovered due to the niqab grenade lobbed by Harper halfway through election forty-two. Mulcair was there to turn the NDP into a governing party.
The alternative was not pretty. Either Mulcair garnered a mediocre score below Clark's threshold of 66.9% or above. In the later questions would still have remained about Mulcair 's leadership it simply would have trnaslated into the "Leap" v. "Moderate" faction of the NDP-a leadership war by proxy. In the former Mulcair may have simply resigned but, how long he decided to wait to announce would have paralysed the Party in the interim. If he decided not to resign could anything short of a civil war been the result? Chretien had a tough time cooling the boots of the Matinites during his three terms as prime minister - Chretien won three majority governments-Mulcair squandered his party's best chance to form government. The knives were already out!
The Edmonton Convention gave the NDP up to two years to select the next leader, a generous severance to Mulcair. Mulcair indicated he would not be a candidate in the leadership race by speaking of the "person who replaces me" and with the result it is hard to see Mr. Mulcair continuing in federal politics after the next election.
It is very early in the leadership race but, no shortage of candidates: defeated M.P.s; Megan Leslie, Peggy Nash, Olivia Chow. Sitting M.P.s; Romeo Saganash, Nathan Cullen, Peter Julian. journalist and rabble rouser; Avi Lewis, Seth and or Naomi Klein. Some younger current and former M.P.s may also throw their hats in such as; Nikki Ashton, Charmaine Borg, or Christine Moore. It should be pleasing and reassuring for Dippers that so many candidates do present themselves as potential leaders. it demonstrates why those who suopported Mulcair by stating there was "no one better to replace him" were far off the mark-"who could do better"? Well, the NDP are at 13% in the polls so quite likely almost anybody could do better.
In what is perhaps a fitting tribute to Mulcair's time as leader he focused on the wrong constituency during the Edmonton convention. Instead of securing the delegates needed to re-affirm his leadership Mulcair gave national interviews with Peter Mansbridge and others. It confirmed that while Mulcair had many good attributes of leadership his political antennae were not as attuned to the people on the ground as should be. That Mulcair was and is not a man of the people. It is an unforgivable calculation for someone who claims he wanted to keep his job ignoring your electors or in this case confusing the broader national electorate with the smaller Party and convention electorate that hold one's future in their hands. That noone in Mulcair's inner circle advised him to work the crowd in Edmonton speaks volumes about Mulcair, his leadership style and his team. In the end his team as much as anyone let him down. These are the same people who during the election forgot to focus on the voters, who allowed Trudeau to out flank them. Mulcair was always trying for the big prize in doing so he forgot that victory is built individually one vote at a time.
For my money: On a longshot bet Saganash. Front runner at this juncture; Nathan Cullen, Peter Julian. Outside chance; Kennedy Stewart, Megan Leslie.
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